6th IPCC Report: Tackling Global Warming
The IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is an intergovernmental body established in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization, with 195 member states. Bringing together thousands of scientific experts on climate, it assesses and analyzes ongoing climate change through scientific studies. This work is at the heart of international decisions on climate, such as at COP21 in Paris in 2015. The synthesis report of the 6th Assessment Report (AR6) brings together the scientific, technical, and socio-economic information associated with global warming from the three special reports and three working group reports published since 2014 :
Working group Report I (2021) on scientific knowledge;
Working group Report II (2022) on impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability;
Working group Report III (2022) on climate change mitigation.
This report, divided into four main sections, highlights the interdependence of climate, ecosystems, biodiversity, and human societies. It highlights the diversity of players involved in the fight against global warming. Today, not enough action is being taken to address the issue of climate change. However, there is still hope, as there are many effective options available to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on populations and ecosystems.
A FEW KEY FIGURES
Global temperatures for the period 2011-2020 were 1.1°C higher than for the period 1850-1900. Over the past 50 years, the rate of warming has been unprecedented for more than 2,000 years. Warming of the atmosphere, as well as of the oceans and continents, is largely influenced by human activity, particularly by greenhouse gas emissions.
From 1850 to 2019, humanity emitted 2400 Gt of CO₂.
In 2019, the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ was 410 ppm, methane 1866 ppb, and nitrous oxide 332 ppb. GHG emissions amounted to 59 Gt CO₂-eq, a 54% increase in 1990.
The sea level rose by 20 cm between 1901 and 2018.
Emissions are proportional to countries’ level of development: developed countries are the biggest GHG emitters. The richest 10% of countries account for 40% of GHG emissions.
Extreme weather and climate events are becoming increasingly frequent and intense. These events expose between 3.3 and 3.6 billion people to great vulnerability due to climate change. This translates into serious human precariousness, such as increased mortality, food-borne diseases, and deteriorating water quality.
PROGRESS IN ADAPTING TO AND MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE IS STILL INSUFFICIENT
Significant progress has been made in adapting to climate change, notably by reducing climatic risks and changing agricultural practices.
These efforts remain insufficient, however, as they are still small-scale, unevenly distributed around the world, or too specific to one sector of activity. Adaptation efforts are still exposed to numerous obstacles, such as a lack of resources, political will, knowledge on the subject, and above all, the low flow of funding towards adaptation.
While the 2015 Paris Agreement brought together the majority of States, set targets and led to the emergence of regulations that have, for example, encouraged the use of renewable energies, it remains insufficient to reverse the trend. The commitments made at COP26 in 2021 would even lead to global warming of around 2.8°C by 2100, well beyond the objective of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Financing for mitigation and adaptation is inadequate, and developing countries lack sufficient financial and technological resources. Targets of limiting global warming to 2°C, or even 1.5°C, are unattainable at this stage, given the measures taken to date.
THE RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Rising global temperatures will lead to a number of phenomena:
Disruption of the water cycle;
Intensification of heavy precipitation;
More frequent wet and dry periods;
Heat waves;
Storms;
Rising sea levels;
Water acidification;
Decreased capacity of natural carbon sinks* to absorb CO₂.
A range of risks will be associated with these changes in all world regions: disease, psychological impacts, dwindling water resources, coastal submersion, flooding, loss of biodiversity, lower agricultural yields, heat-related mortality, etc.
The consequences of global warming will be felt by human beings, the natural environment, structures, and the economy. The impacts of global warming combine and spread across all regions of the globe.
The more vulnerable and exposed populations and natural environments are to impacts, the more serious these impacts will be, leading to negative developments in the future. Some impacts will be irreversible, as in the case of melting ice and rising sea levels. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions would minimize the likelihood of global warming spiraling out of control, given that every tenth of a degree increase in global temperature increases the risks and their management.
POSSIBLE LONG-TERM RESPONSES
Adaptation: to be as effective as possible, solutions must be multi-sectoral, reduce social inequalities, and be long-term. Poor adaptation can amplify long-term risks.
Mitigation: GHG emissions need to be reduced in all sectors by 2030, and CO2 removal methods will be needed to eliminate residual emissions from, for example, aviation.
The “overshoot” is a scenario in which the +1.5°C target is exceeded, while gradually falling below it thanks to the capture and storage of more CO₂ than is emitted worldwide. This overshoot would have negative effects, making it even more difficult to return below +1.5°C.
POSSIBLE SHORT-TERM RESPONSES
Rapid and radical mitigation measures are possible. They would reduce the damage caused to humans and ecosystems, while providing several co-benefits, such as improved air quality. Regulatory and fiscal reforms implementation would make it possible, in particular, to steer macroeconomic policies towards climate measures.
RESPONSES BY SECTOR
Mitigation and adaptation measures are already possible in all sectors. Here are three examples:
Transport: Sustainable biofuels and low-carbon hydrogen are solutions for reducing emissions from shipping and road freight. Low-carbon electric vehicles hold great promise for land transport.
Cities and infrastructures: Development of public transport, reduction of the environmental impact of buildings, green spaces, and closer proximity to the workplace.
Society: Social protection systems for vulnerable populations exposed to climate-related disasters.
GOVERNANCE, EQUITY, AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
The IPCC highlights the different responsibilities of countries in this situation. The richest countries are most responsible for GHG emissions, while communities in countries that have contributed least to the phenomenon are most exposed to the serious consequences. Wealthy States must reduce their dependence on fossil fuels, while developing countries aspiring to a higher standard of living are also likely to emit more GHGs, and must have the means to meet the transition challenges.
The report emphasizes that adaptation and mitigation measures will be more effective if they are based on equity, social and climate justice, as well as rights and inclusion. Political goodwill will be equally important in translating measures into policy, legislation, and planning. Effective governance at local, national, and international levels will also be essential, and climate investments need to be multiplied by 3 to 6 in the decade from 2020 to 2030. This underlines the need not only for private financing but also for public financial support, which will tend to stimulate the flow of private investment. Technological innovation also represents an opportunity to reduce emissions and create social and environmental co-benefits. To advance financial and technological initiatives, increased international cooperation will be necessary.
*System that naturally absorbs part of the CO₂ emitted. Eg. Forests.
